Los Angeles, CA — Chuck Schumer should be scared about keeping his own seat.
A new poll commissioned by Progress Action Fund of New York Democrats shows Schumer getting hammered in hypothetical 2028 Senate primary matchups against Kathy Hochul, Zohran Mamdani, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The numbers are brutal:
- Hochul beats Schumer 50.3% to 20.2% – a 30-point blowout.
- Mamdani beats Schumer 47.9% to 31.2% – a nearly 17-point defeat.
- AOC beats Schumer 44.5% to 30.5% – a 14-point loss.
“How many Democrats have to beat you by double digits before you get the message?” said Joe Jacobson, Executive Director of Progress Action Fund. “Hochul beats him. Mamdani beats him. AOC beats him. Schumer can’t even get a third of Democrats to choose him against any of them.
“Schumer’s too weak to run for re-election, let alone Senate leadership.”
Among Democrats ages 18–34, the bottom falls out entirely: Mamdani leads Schumer 72.8% to 13.3%. That’s a nearly 60-point gap.
“Democrats can respect your career and still want someone else to take the job,” Jacobson added. “Nobody owes Chuck Schumer another six years in the Senate. If he wants their votes, he needs to give them a reason. His title won’t save him. His résumé won’t vote for him.”
The primary is still two years away, but Schumer starts behind every named challenger tested, with a substantial gap to close.
About the survey: Grow Progress surveyed 794 self-identified Democratic adults in New York from September 30–October 2, 2026. Results are weighted to represent that audience, rather than a screened likely primary electorate. Matchups are hypothetical; the report provides estimate-specific margins of error at the 90% confidence level.
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Progress Action Fund (PAF) is a Democratic super PAC with a simple motto: when Republicans go low, we go lower. PAF is best known for its viral ads starring “Your Republican Congressman,” which received immense praise and media coverage from Nicolle Wallace to even Steve Bannon. PAF’s ads gained over 270 million organic views on social media during the 2024 cycle, with the PAC also showing its ads an additional 181 million times in the swing states on connected TV and streaming services.
To learn more, visit www.progressactionfund.com.