WASHINGTON — Democrats in Ohio haven’t had a lot of success recently. The last few election cycles have left them with major losses, a redistricting disadvantage, and little hope of turning their fortunes around any time soon.
But an effort launched after the fall of Roe v. Wade, with a Republican-dominated state House determined to stop it, might give Democrats a boost just in time for the run-up to the 2024 election.
On Aug. 8, Ohioans will go to the polls to vote on a question, “Issue 1,” which would raise the threshold for approving amendments to the state constitution from a simple majority to 60 percent of the popular vote.
The rare late summer election was no accident. In May, Republicans in the state assembly voted to create it — even though they previously had voted to end August special elections — largely seen as an effort to get in front of a citizen-led constitutional amendment to protect access to abortions.
If the higher threshold question succeeds, it could make the effort to pass the abortion amendment in November much harder. But, Democrats say, it has also galvanized voters who see it as overreach by the Republicans, stirring up long-dormant energy they hope could carry over into a presidential election year when the state will also have a key Senate race that could determine control of Congress.
They have reason to be optimistic about the abortion amendment. In every state-level ballot vote on the issue of abortion since the US Supreme Court overturned the federal right to an abortion in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case last year, abortion access supporters have won, even in competitive and conservative states.
Public opinion on Issue 1 also seems to be on the side of abortion access supporters, as one USA TODAY Network/Suffolk University poll found that 57 percent of Ohio voters oppose it. While turning out voters in an off year and in the summer can be difficult, as of last Friday, 355,483 people had already cast their ballots; Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s office said in a statement that the “numbers reflect a dramatic increase in voter activity over the August statewide primary election of 2022.”
That type of enthusiasm is exactly what Democrats are hoping to see ahead of next year’s presidential election, when Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown will be up for reelection in a critical seat for the party that now holds the narrowest of majorities in the Senate.
“If you’re Sherrod, what you hope and what you intend is, take all the energy and the infrastructure that’s building around Issue 1, then November,” said former state Democratic party chair David Pepper. “All of a sudden in 2023 you went from zero to a whole lot of energy and a whole lot of volunteers and a whole lot of activism, and that can obviously only help Sherrod Brown’s reelection.”
Despite LaRose, who recently joined the Senate Republican race, reportedly saying the threshold amendment is “100 percent” about keeping the abortion rights proposal from passing, the opposition to it runs across many different interests due to the new hurdles it will create for any future proposals.
If abortion isn’t the issue voters care about, then it might be the next one, which is why hundreds of groups from Ohioans for Reproductive Freedom and Ohio Physicians for Reproductive Rights, which are spearheading the November amendment on abortion, to former governors, including Republicans John Kasich and Bob Taft, have joined together to urge a no vote.
And while Democrats know this exact coalition may not directly translate to this November or the next, the commonality of interests overthis ballot measure is opening lines of political conversation in a way that has become unusual in the ever-reddening state.
Ohio Democratic party chair Liz Walters, for example, said that at a recent family gathering, her cousin, a Trump voter, admired her vote-no sign; they joked it was the first time the two would vote the same way in “quite a while.”
“On the campaign front, this is the kind of work that we as a state party would be doing kind of regardless of what is on the ballot — organizing voters, organizing volunteers, making sure folks are registered to vote and know how to cast their ballot,“ Walters said. “But when you have a big issue on the ballot like this, you have a little more attention from folks.”
“We’re able to engage with many, many more people this year than we normally would have because of these issues on the ballot.”
Meanwhile, Republicans have built their own coalition to support Issue 1.
“There are lots of people out there who have different motivations. You’ll find quotes in Ohio newspapers from a variety of people saying it has nothing to do with abortion, it has something to do with abortion, it has everything to do with abortion. There are many perspectives in this coalition,” said Tyler Herrmann, chair of the Ohio chapter of the Republican National Lawyers Association, which supports passing Issue 1. “I can only speak for myself and say I have been complaining about how easy it is to amend the constitution for well over a decade.”
Herrmann predicted this year would not give Democrats power that would necessarily carry into 2024, and went so far to say that if the abortion amendment succeeds, they might see a decrease in their voters next year who feel there’s “no need to worry about it anymore.” He also pointed to the continued success of Republican candidates in 2022 after Roe v. Wade protections had fallen.
But from interviews with Ohio political operatives, it was clear Democrats are feeling anywhere from cautiously optimistic to bullish about their odds, confident that Republicans had overreached. In one eye-catching ad urging Ohioans to vote no by Progress Action Fund, a couple about to have sex is interrupted by a Republican congressman sitting in their bedroom, who snatches a condom away and tells the couple his party plans to get rid of contraceptives.
“They have to get the attention of voters of Ohio in a way that evokes emotion, and that commercial evokes a lot of emotion. We’re feeling positive,” said former Ohio state senator Nina Turner, a progressive known nationally for her work as a Bernie Sanders surrogate.
But she cautioned that sometimes it can be hard to transfer energy from one political moment to the next, and she didn’t think that would happen this time “unless my party does something to ensure that the good times keep rolling.”
For Brown, in particular, the vigorous opposition to Issue 1 and for the November abortion amendment could be a boon.
“Sherrod is joining canvass launches and virtual rallies across the state to encourage Ohioans to vote No on State Issue 1,” Rachel Petri, campaign manager for Friends of Sherrod Brown, said in a statement to the Globe. “He is standing against this corrupt power grab — designed to silence voters and help special interests — because it’s the right thing to do for Ohio.”
Meanwhile, all the major GOP Senate primary candidates have rallied behind Issue 1. At one point a couple of them jockeyed in dueling statements to prove themselves as most committed to the cause.
Pepper predicted the battle would end up coming back to bite the nominee.
“They might have all embraced something that will be a very toxic thing for them to have been part of,” Pepper said.
